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Agile Complexification Inverter - David Koontz
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Updated: 4 hours 18 min ago

That's a goatee of a different color

Fri, 05/26/2017 - 14:42
I've made a transition from gray tones to living color - much like Dorothy in The Wizard of Oz (the first color motion picture).

Dog Groomer's have a natural capability to accept a being for what they are and how they present, as well as what their humans may desire.  This is a wonderful ability - we should learn from them.  I had a great conversation with my local groomers at the Blissful Bark Dog Wash, about peoples expectations and inherent biases based upon look, job title, etc.  This capability of acceptance and a deeper level of judgement came to me as they asked about my hair color choices.  They told of the judgements that a dog groomer receives - one even equated the title's status to that of a stripper (good company if you can have friends in low places).

From this and other conversation I've had as a result of a choice to live with more color, I've made some interesting observation about you people.

  • You humans are preoccupied by noticing inconsequential details in your field of view and then fixating upon the possible meaning of such trivial, while being totally oblivious to the important patterns happening all around you.   Dogs do not have this bias.
  • Women are about 8.347 times more accepting of the appearance of someone than men are.
  • Men are generally judgmental - there first question for me has been - Why?
  • White Male Privilege is difficult to comprehend from this state of being.  Having experienced just one fuchsia hair's width of the other side for a fleeting 3 weeks - I can say I understand intellectually - but have no knowledge or understand of it - no experience - no wisdom.
  • Human bias to blend in to the group norm, to look like others, but desire to stand out is ineffable.
Categories: Blogs

Team <-> Group

Fri, 05/26/2017 - 00:46
What makes a team?  Is there a continuum upon which sits the term team?  Some have referred to difficulty comparing apples to oranges - I find it quite easy.

Apple <-> Orange <-> Pomegranate

<- Team ---- Group ->

List of English terms of venery, by animal

Why do we not list HUMAN in the animal column when listing group names?
For example,  horses are know in groups as: teamin harness
haras or harrase
Humans are know in groups as:  mob, group, team, squad, army, click, ....
We have a whole system of dealing with collective nouns.
How do we distinguish between the behaviors of a team and the behaviors of a group?  Have you noticed that manager's refer to people that report to them as a team?  Regardless of the behaviors that the group may exhibit - rarely a team like behavior...  
I've always said just because we all wear the same color jersey doesn't mean we are a team.

Categories: Blogs

Why testing in production works.

Thu, 05/25/2017 - 14:21

A video that cannot be unseen.  If you want to truly understand the difference between a unit test and integration tests.
Watch what happens when you write plenty of unit test - but skip the integration test.

Categories: Blogs

Exploiting Variability: A Principle of Product Development Flow

Wed, 05/24/2017 - 21:44
What do these phrase have in common - what is their inherent consistent meaning?

  • Zero Defects
  • Take the time to do it Right
  • Repeatability and Reliability
  • Process Maturity Model
  • Measure twice, cut once
  • Six Sigma
  • Rework is Waste, Lean processes remove Waste

They are ironically consistent in their purpose to reduce variability.  Don Reinertsen will attempt to convince us that in the domain of product development (unlike other domains) variability may not be the enemy of good.  He will argue that it is the economic payoff-function of this outcome that is of upmost concern in design.

Voltaire's aphorism:  Perfect is the enemy of good.
I'm in a group at work that is reading books on Agile software development topics to what purpose... well to learn I hope.  After Lyssa's book on Coaching Agile Teams we turned the knob up to 11 with Don Reinertsen's Principles of Product Development Flow.  Since it's such a tough read, a dense book with so much knowledge, we have a divide and conquer mind set... we read a chapter and present it to the group (knowing that the group as an aggregate will not read the book).  So my chapter is #4, Exploiting Variability.  This is my plan... to add variability to the typical book report that a group of people might fall into the habit of performing - by adding variability to the format.
"We cannot add value without adding variability, but we can add variability without adding value." -- Don Reinertsen

Agile in 3 Minutes: #23 Vary by Amitai Schlair
...the conclusion "Projects by design and in effect magnify risks."
Ok let's play.  Did you know that play is rooted in variability? (Games and the Human)

"... however different their descriptions and interpretations of play, each rhetoric reveals a quirkiness, redundancy, and flexibility. In light of this, Sutton-Smith suggests that play might provide a model of the variability that allows for “natural” selection. As a form of mental feedback, play might nullify the rigidity that sets in after successful adaption, thus reinforcing animal and human variability. Further, he shows how these discourses, despite their differences, might offer the components for a new social science of play."  
-- The Ambiguity of Play by Brian Sutton-Smith

Fundamental to this discussion is the .... pardon the overuse of the phrase.... various types of domains that humans participate in.  We shall need to distinguish between the creative domains of design and innovation from other domains such as manufacture or agriculture.  In some domains the desire for variability is low, and in these endeavors humans have done well to reduce variance.  However in the more creative endeavors this tendency is harmful.  One doesn't wish for an artist to produce the exact same work of art repeatedly for 20 years.  Now that we agree upon that basic fundamental concept.  Do we agree that software development is a creative act?  If not - you should click on an exit link now...  because we have a fundamental disagreement and I will not be able to sustain the cognitive dissonance required for both of us to continue.

A challenge...  simulate to streams of flow ... one with variability and one without... 1, 2, 3, go....

Conteneo's Ideas into Action(tm) framework
[V1] Principle of Beneficial Variability: do not make the mistake of only paying attention to the probability of success (benefit).  "Paying attention to the payoff-function radically transforms our view of variability."

[V2] Principle of Asymmetric Payoffs:  not all payoffs are the same... we are searching for big payoffs.  In this search, we seek the complicated asymmetric function  (see the 1997 Nobel Prize for Economics: Robert merton & Myron Scholes for Black-Scholes option pricing model).  In this realm live the venture capitalist - start to understand their principles and models.

[V3] Principle of Optimum Variability: It is only via the economic transformation of variability (Payoff Function) that we can judge the goodness of variability.  The notion that all variability is bad (therefore eliminate variability) is to totally misuse the concept.  If one cannot graph the payoff function - one doesn't understand the economies at work.

In the [V4] Principle of Optimum Failure Rate we find the distinction between exploratory testing which should be optimized to generate information and therefore will have high failure rates (close to 50% or you're not doing exploratory testing well).  Versus the design validation tests (strive for 100% success rate) where success looks like green bars.  Noting that most companies do a poor job of communicating their failures - and therefore repeat their failures, thereby produce no new information.  "Only new failures generate information."

There are two approaches to the economics of variability - change the amount of variability or change the economic consequences of that variability.

First attempts to reduce variability.

[V5] Principle of Variability Pooling: overall variation decreases when uncorrelated random tasks are combined.
[V6] Principle of Short-Term Forecasting:  forecasting becomes exponentially easier at short-term horizons.
[V7] Principle of Small Experiments:  many small experiments produce less variation than one big one.
[V8] Repetition Principle:  repetition reduces variation.
[V9] Reuse Principle:  reuse reduces variability.
[V10] Principle of Negative Covariance:  we can reduce variance by applying a counterbalancing effect.
[V11] Buffer Principle:  buffers trade money for variability reduction.

Time for you to participate - give me an example from your place of employment for each of those attempts to reduce variability - this should be easy.

Lastly attempts to reduce the economic consequences.

[V12] Principle of Variability Consequence:  reducing consequences is usually the best way to reduce the cost of variability.
[V13] Nonlinearity Principle:  operate in the linear range of system performance.
[V14] Principle of Variability Substitution:  substitute cheap variability for expensive variability.
[V15] Principle of Iteration Speed:  it is usually better to improve iteration speed than defect rate.
[V16] Principle of Variability Displacement:  move variability to the process stage where its cost is lowest.

Don concludes the chapter by stating: "Variability is not the enemy; it is a tool to create economic value."  Can you weird this powerful tool?

See Also:
Variation: The Root of All Process Evil

Don't confuse Reinertsen's Product Development Flow with the more general psychological term Flow by psychologist Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi's famous investigations of "optimal experience." A discovery that revealed what makes an experience genuinely satisfying is a state of consciousness called flow.

Categories: Blogs

Vending Machine of Values & Principles

Wed, 05/24/2017 - 05:54
Have you seen the new automobile vending machines.  It appears we could put anything in a vending machine.  So what would you put into the vending machine?

Categories: Blogs

Info Radiation vs Info Refrigeration - a metaphor

Tue, 05/23/2017 - 03:48
Is a metaphor a form of lightweight model?

"All models are wrong, some models are useful."
-- George Box

The metaphor of information radiation is quite well know to many in the software industry.  Did you ask why?  Maybe because much of our work is very hidden from view, until we run the program and the computer interprets the code to produce some desired outcome.  Even that outcome may be obscured from view, and we must produce reports upon the data that the program produced.  So in a world where smoke and mirrors are common, one antidote to the common problem of not knowing where one is along the path toward product completion, a visualization is a powerful tool.

Generally speaking the information radiator has similar properties to the old fashion building heat radiator that used a steam media source to heat heavy iron and radiate the heat from the iron into the room.  It feels great to be standing next to a radiator when you've just come in from the cold.

What is the refrigeration process - what's required to cool some air?  Currently we use the 200 year old Carnot cycle to produce the cooling effect that your summers are known for.  I doubt that my home of Dallas Texas would be the Mecca of IT if not for Mr. Nicolas Carnot and his research into what would become air-conditions environments.  A comfortable 70 degrees indoors while the Texas sun is 95 in the shade.

Pressure-Volume diagram of Carnot cycleI will leave the internal working of the AC unit to your study (I did it back in college - fascinating stuff).

When we put information is some systems we encode or compress it in such a way that the storage is efficient.  Think of a data base, significant work is done upon the data to store it.

When we pull it out of those systems we also must now do work to make the data into information, and then do more work to make the information understandable by the people that have little knowledge of where the data came from, the purpose of storing the data and the context from which that data/info may have resulted.  Someone will interpret that context, information and purpose and try to convey all this in a summary of the meaning behind larger data sets that the important people reviewing the information have time for.  This expansion of the information and subsequent summarization or generalization takes energy from the system as a whole.

pondering the connections - AC to info refrigeration metaphor....  what do you see in this metaphor?

is there a useful model to play with?

Categories: Blogs

Cycle Time and Lead Time

Fri, 05/19/2017 - 04:01
Our organization is starting to talk about measuring Cycle Time and Lead Time on our software engineering stories.  It's just an observation, but few people seem to understand these measurement concepts, but everyone is talking about them.  This is a bad omen...  wish I could help illustrate these terms.  Because I doubt the measurements will be very accurate if the community doesn't understand when to start the clock, and just as important - when to stop it.

[For the nature of confusion around this terms compare and contrast these:  Agile Alliance Glossary; Six Sigma;; Lean Glossary.]

The team I'm working with had a toy basket ball goal over their Scrum board...  like many cheep toys the rim broke.  Someone bought a superior mini goal, it's a nice heavy quarter inch plastic board with a spring loaded rim - not a cheep toy.  The team used "Command Strips" to mount it but they didn't hold for long.

The team convinced me there was a correlation between their basketball points on the charts and the teams sprint burndown chart.  Not cause and effect, but correlation; have you ever stopped to think what that really means?  Could it mean that something in the environment beyond your ability to measure is an actual cause to the effect you desire?

I asked the head person at the site for advice, how could we get the goal mounted in our area?  He suggested that we didn't need permission, that the walls of the building were not national treasures - we should just mount it... maybe try some Command Strips.  Yes, great minds...  but what about getting fired after putting holes in the walls scares one from doing the right thing?  How hard is it to explain to the Texas Work Force Commission when they ask why you were fired?

The leader understood that if I asked the building facilities manager that I might get denied - but if he asked for a favor... it would get done.  That very day, Mike had the facilities manager looking at the board and the wall (a 15-20 minute conversation).  Are you starting the clock?  It's Dec 7th, lead time starts when Mike agreed to the team's request.

The team was excited, it looked like their desire was going to be granted.  Productive would flourish again.

Over the next few days I would see various people looking up at the wall and down at the basketball goal on the floor.  There were about 4 of these meetings each very short and not always the same people.  Team members would come up to me afterwards and ask...  "are we still getting the goal?"... "when are they going to bring a drill?"...  "what's taking so long?"

Running the calendar forward a bit... Today the facilities guy showed up with a ladder and drill.  It took about 20 minutes.  Basketball goal mounted (Dec 13th) - which clock did you stop?  All of the clocks stop when the customer (team) has their product (basketball goal) in production (a game commences).

I choose to think of lead time as the time it takes an agreed upon product or service order to be delivered.  In this example that starts when Mike, the dude, agreed to help the team get their goal mounted.

In this situation I want to think of cycle time as the time that people worked to produce the product (mounted goal) - other's might call this process time (see Lean Glossary).  And so I estimated the time that each meeting on the court looking at the unmounted goal took, plus the actual time to mount  the goal (100 minutes).  Technically cycle time is per unit of product - since in the software world we typically measure per story and each story is some what unique - it's not uncommon to drop the per unit aspect of cycle time.

Lead time:  Dec 13th minus Dec 7th = 5 work days
Cycle time:  hash marks //// (4)  one for each meeting at the board to discuss mounting techniques (assume 20 m. each); and about 20 minutes with ladder and drill;  total 100 minutes

Lead Time 5 days; Cycle Time 100 minutes
This lead to a conversation on the court - under the new goal with a few team members about what we could do with these measurements.  How if one's job was to go around and install basketball goals for every team in the building that a cycle time of 100 minutes with a lead time of 5 days might make the customers a bit unhappy.   Yet for a one off, unusual once a year sort of request that ratio of 100 minutes to 5 days was not such a bad response time.  The customer's were very happy in the end, although waiting for 5 days did make them a bit edgy.

But now what would happen if we measured our software development cycle time and lead time - would our (business) customers be happy?  Do we produce a once in a year product? (Well yes - we've yet to do a release.) Do our lead times have similar ratios to cycle time, with very little value add time (process time)?


Well it's January 5th and this example came up in a Scrum Master's Forum meeting.  After telling the tale we still did not agree on when to start and stop the two watches for Lead Time and Cycle Time.  Maybe this is much harder than I thought.  Turns out I'm in the minority of opinions - I'm doing it wrong!

Could you help me figure out why my view point is wrong?  Comment below, please.

LeanKit just published an article on this topic - it's very good but might also misinterpret cycle time.  I see no 'per unit' in their definition of cycle time.  The Lead Time and Cycle Time Debate: When Does the Clock Start? by Tommy Norman.

An Experiment in measuring the team's cycle time:
After a bit of time reflecting, debating, arguing with colleagues and other agilitst online I've decided to publish a little experiment in measuring cycle-time on a scrum team.  Here's the data... what does it say?  How do you think the team should react?  What action should be next?  What should the team's leadership feel/think/do?

The Story:  This team has been working together for a while.  The sprints are numbered from the start of the year... an interesting practice, this team uses 2 week sprints, is practicing Scrum.  Took a nice holiday and required some priming to get back in the swing of things after the first of the year (you see this in the trend of stories completed each sprint).  Cycle Time for a story on trend is longer than the sprint, this correlates with typical story "carry-over" (a story started is not finished in one sprint and is carried over to the next sprint).  Generally a story is finished in the sprint but not in sequence or priority - they all take at least the full sprint to get to done.  There is no correlation of story size to cycle time.

Now those are the facts more or less -- let us see what insights we might create from this cycle time info.  With no correlation of story size to cycle time AND little consistency of number of stories finished in a sprint (trend of # of stories: 1, 6, 7, 2, 2). The question arrises - what is the controlling variable that is not being measured that effects the time it takes to get from start to finish with a story?  Now that the team can see that the simplest things we could track do not have a strong effect on the length of time (or the through-put) a story requires... and that means the process is not under good control - we can start to look around for some of the uncontrolled (invisible factors) -- if we a courageous enough!

We reflected that many of the stories that carry over and are virtually unpredictable in size/time/effort appear to have large delays or multiple delays within their implementation phase.  So we devised a quick and dirty way to track this delay.  The assumption that this delay inherent in the work will perhaps be the unmeasured / uncontrolled variable that throws the correlation of story size with cycle-time out of kilter.

Our devised technique for tracking delay per story - a yellow dot on the task with a tick mark for every day the task is stuck in-process (delayed).

If this article spawns another article which references this one that references that one... does the internet cause a singularity?  I'd ask you to click this link, but you may implode:  Derek Wade - On Time.

See Also:

LeanKit published this excellent explanation of their choices in calculating cycle time within their tool:  Kanban Calculations: How to Calculate Cycle Time by Daniel Vacanti.
LeanKit Lead Time Metrics: Why Weekends Matter
Elon Musk turns a tweet into reality in 6 days by Loic Le Meur
The ROI of Multiple Small Releases

The Hummingbird Effect: How Galileo Invented Timekeeping and Forever Changed Modern Life
by Maria Popova.  How the invisible hand of the clock powered the Industrial Revolution and sparked the Information Age.

Categories: Blogs

Agile Movement's parallels to Lincoln's Gettysburg Address

Wed, 05/17/2017 - 03:46
What parallels are there between Lincoln's Gettysburg Address and the state of the Agile movement's union?

Lincoln was a primary figure at the dedication of Soldiers' National Cemetery, in Gettysburg. He did not wish to upstage the keynote speaker, Edward Everett, and so summarized in 2 minutes the principle of human equality as defined by the Declaration of Independence and the Civil War.  Do you remember, the keynote speech?  Few people do.

Lincoln's Gettysburg Address:
Four score and seven years ago our fathers brought forth on this continent, a new nation, conceived in Liberty, and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal. Now we are engaged in a great civil war, testing whether that nation, or any nation so conceived and so dedicated, can long endure. We are met on a great battle-field of that war. We have come to dedicate a portion of that field, as a final resting place for those who here gave their lives that that nation might live. It is altogether fitting and proper that we should do this. But, in a larger sense, we can not dedicate—we can not consecrate—we can not hallow—this ground. The brave men, living and dead, who struggled here, have consecrated it, far above our poor power to add or detract. The world will little note, nor long remember what we say here, but it can never forget what they did here. It is for us the living, rather, to be dedicated here to the unfinished work which they who fought here have thus far so nobly advanced. It is rather for us to be here dedicated to the great task remaining before us—that from these honored dead we take increased devotion to that cause for which they gave the last full measure of devotion—that we here highly resolve that these dead shall not have died in vain—that this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom—and that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth. - - U.S. President Abraham Lincoln
I heard an NPR story about a person that give their grandkids twenty dollars to recite the Address.  It sounded like a wonderful way to engage kids in history and the founding reasons of the existence of this nation.  I'm assuming that it would take the children some time to memorize the short speech and in so doing they would have questions, about what the words meant.  How many of your colleagues know what unit of quantity a score represents?  Do you know what happened four-score and seven years before 1863?

The foundational document of this new nation is the Declaration of Independence - signed in the summer of 1776 by a group of wealth white men.  They are now described as our founding fathers, yet some were quite young at the time (Hamilton, 21; Jefferson, 33; Washington, 44).  These free thinking people (and some were women - they just didn't sign the document) were called radicals by their government and traders by their neighbors.

Does any of this sound like a fractal of the Agile Manifesto and the movement that was started back in the 1990s with lightweight frameworks for organizing software product creation.  The desire to increase the good aspects and there by overcome the poor habits (appreciative inquiry or extreme programming - is there a difference?).

Is there a revisionist movement some 15-20 years beyond the 2001 manifesto creation?  Yes, there appears to be a constant yearning for the next wave, the next wagon to hitch your cart onto.

Are there amendments that need to be added to the manifesto much like the Bill of Rights?  Or is that a fringe movement on the periphery?

Modern agile  defining four guiding principles:

  • Make people awesome
  • Make safety a prerequisite
  • Experiment and learn rapidly
  • Deliver value continuously

Alistair Cockburn observer his communication style in beginner and advanced classes, he said: "[I] found that when I was encouraging getting back to the center/heart/spirit of agile, I kept emphasizing these four things, and drew them in a diamond:"

Could the newest technique Mob Programming be anything more than an incremental addition to eXtreme Programming (XP)?  Some 30 years in the making.

I've found a next movement in the Agile Symphony. [Do you see what I just did there? Yeah, changed the metaphor but pivoted upon the term movement. Crafty right?]  I believe the next movement that so many people are looking for are just a jump to the left.  Look to the left of the typical process flow of value through the company, just left of what the current Agile process addresses (software development).  It's the creative process that is just up stream of software development.  The product ideation phase, the place where all those creative people are trying to get a seat at the table and be engaged with the software product design.  The User Interface and User eXperience people are wanting to engage with the whole process. Not just be consulted at the end of the process when the user acceptance test has proven that no one wants to use our product.

Could it be that the UX group is searching for a way to improve the development process?  Are they sensing the need to find a better process?  One that results in similar outcomes but with shorter timelines, a process that allows them to maximize the value in their portion of the stream.  I think this group is in the same place as the lightweight software development group was in the 1990s.  Before a few of them got together to coin the term Agile and write a manifesto to protect their small market share from the large 800 pound gorillas in the software consultancy market space.

Well the gorillas have exerted their power and the industry has consolidated into the safer methods that allow the late adopters to feel good about their failing transformations.  Your OK, and I'm OK; let's just call the whole thing off.  And that folks, is how we arrive back at the trend in business lifecycles becoming shorter, while innovation continues to accelerate.

So maybe this new movement in the symphony will allow me to come into their community.  I feel I have something to offer, I love learning, and building (which I think of as design).  I have a bit of experience with these new methods of designing and building and learning as we discover what the customer truly desire.  I'd like to help the creative people get that seat at the whole development table.

Maybe you could think of this period of software development as the reconstruction.

See Also:

Reshaping our View of Agile Transformation - Jason Little

Categories: Blogs

Design Your Competition's Support Department

Fri, 05/12/2017 - 05:54
You are presented with a common business problem.  One technique that has always helped me to define the problem space is to invert the problem, take it to an extreme to explore the continuum of your domain.  Let's imagine that we want to redesign our software support department at MegaSoft Corporation.  Applying our inversion principle we will leave our MegaSoft support as is, and instead we will design the competitors support group. It's going to stink, people are going to hate to even call them, their people will be arrogant techies with no human compassion - they will actually hire with those skills required.  Let's pause and give this company a name...  TechHard sounds great.

Who's time is most valuable?  At TechHard the support engineers time is very valuable, so we will have process that time how long a support tech. is on the call with a customer so that our process gurus can optimize for the use of this most valuable resource.  A typical call from a director or VP in our internal support operation should be logged by an administrative receptionist (maybe even automated system) and then the support techs time can be queued up with return call tickets.  We will return the VPs call when it is convenient for our tech.  The tech can validate that the VP is authorized to access the system, and will confirm that they are still experiencing the problem by walking through a standard checklist.  Being efficiently minded the tech may skip over some simple question like power plug, on/off, reset/reboot, logout/in again if they feel the user is competent.

Answering the basic question of who's time is most valuable via the design of the competition's process is enlightening.  Which is it?  The support person's time - or the customer's time.

How are support systems designed?  Has anyone ever heard of a company that used Design Thinking or High-Tech Anthropology to create a customer centered support group?

Is this Conway's Law at work - are we truly designing the support function of our products/services - or are we just reacting?

Give me an example of great design for support:  Nest Thermostat and Fire Alarm Installation
Have you installed a Nest product?  Their installation and configuration process is well designed.  I don't know about their support department - but my expectations are set very high, if I have a problem.

History will repeat
In the 1980s universities started teaching about design for manufacturing (robots would make the parts).

Are you designing your business departments for it's function?

Speaking of support tools - your going to want a great issue tracking system.  Why not look to a market leader that has all the features your people can put on a check list?  Let's buy Jira - or should we look at the competition's product?

See Also:

Cable Internet provider Frontier's support group struggles with the corporate infrastructure that can not resolve customer problems.

Categories: Blogs

Can we have a dialogue about Estimation and the behaviors it drives?

Fri, 05/12/2017 - 05:54

Some topic are taboo - not safe to discuss.  I've never appreciated that concept.  Those taboo topics are my favorite topics to discuss.

Taboo Topics (ordered by fear of conversation)
  • Gender - Sexual preferences - non-standard practices
  • Religion as truth, my religion vs your wrong religion
  • Politics - the correct way to govern a group the results in my opportunity
  • Pay for services rendered - why my gender is paid more than yours
  • counting - off by one errors and how to mask them; we're # 1
  • estimates - how wrong your estimate was and why I'm missing my commitment
  • prioritization - ordering methods
  • laziness - the art of not doing work
I've recently been embroiled in a "dialogue" about the twitter topic of #NoEstimates.  I would write a summary of the topic but cannot do better that this one:

Estimates? We Don’t Need No Stinking Estimates! by Scott Rosenberg
"How a hashtag (#NoEstimates) lit the nerdy world of project management aflame — or at least got it mildly worked up."

A nice summary of the dust-up.  Imagine if the tag would have been #LeanEstimates?

There are two sides to this debate - at least two sides.  But I like that the taboo topic was raised and has questioned assumptions.  I think the think that drives a topic toward the taboo is this questioning of assumptions.  The saluter of scared cows (where does that term even come from?).

So what behaviors does the process or estimating drive:

  • a list
  • TBD
  • someone misplaced the list...

"Unable to estimate accurately, the manager can know with certainty neither what resources to commit to an effort nor, in retrospect, how well these resources were used.  The lack of a firm foundation for these two judgements can reduce programming management to a random process in that positive control is next to impossible. This situation often results in the budget overruns and schedule slippages that are all too common." -- J.A FarquharDoes a Scrum process framework and the Agile mindset resolve Farquhar's concerns that the manager may have without accurate estimates - via empirical measurement and relative estimation techniques?

I'm not sure that the Twitter-verse is capable of holding the dialogue.  My experience was not very fruitful nor enlightening.  I've been accused by a manager at work of being "anti-management" I've asked, but got no direct answer, what that term meant, and why he believed or thought this label to be useful.  I've wondered if it was because of this type of conversation.  I also asked these fellows, but didn't resolve my query with the rhetoric of the conversation.
@vishalsomal it's an anti-management movement started by Woody, where SWDev wants to run the show @PeterKretzman @henebb— Glen B. Alleman (@galleman) March 5, 2017... deleted ... a lot of tweets about actions from years ago when when the #NoEstimates twitter conversation was beginning - some relating to a blog post being edited or complete deleted.  Something I find quite acceptable (and do quite frequently myself).
@henebb @PeterKretzman @galleman @duarte_vasco So if he deleted a piece you appear to object to maybe you made a point and he heard your view.— David A. Koontz (@davidakoontz) April 13, 2017
@henebb @PeterKretzman @galleman @duarte_vasco is it admirable to be the accuser but not reach out to talk,
to label one hyper-defensive when they are trying to understand? pondering— David A. Koontz (@davidakoontz) April 13, 2017
@PeterKretzman @davidakoontz @henebb @duarte_vasco David, U do realize W and V and now N blocked any questions about the credibility of #NE.
There is NO conversation about NE just broadcast— Glen B. Alleman (@galleman) April 14, 2017
@galleman @PeterKretzman @henebb @duarte_vasco 3 people do not make the sum total of people discussing this topic.— David A. Koontz (@davidakoontz) April 14, 2017
@davidakoontz @galleman @PeterKretzman @duarte_vasco Of course not. No one is claiming that either. But they are the main champs. Traveling the world, spreading the message.— Henrik Ebbeskog (@henebb) April 14, 2017
@galleman @PeterKretzman @henebb @duarte_vasco So I reject your conclusion; and substitute #NE or #noestimates with #LeanEstimates— David A. Koontz (@davidakoontz) April 14, 2017
The conversation went on from there...  I'm reminded of Adam on MythBusters.

@henebb @galleman @duarte_vasco I don't know if this anti-management you speak of. Tell me more as I don't see connection to NE or as we call it now #LeanEstimation— David A. Koontz (@davidakoontz) April 13, 2017 ... and there is some link to Anti-Management because one is willing to discuss better options or worse options than estimation...
@henebb Here's an anti-management tweet (one of many) from the NE founder. @davidakoontz @galleman @duarte_vasco— Peter Kretzman (@PeterKretzman) April 13, 2017
@PeterKretzman @henebb @galleman @duarte_vasco Is it the answers or the questions you object to as being anti-management?— David A. Koontz (@davidakoontz) April 13, 2017
@PeterKretzman @henebb @galleman @duarte_vasco ... 2/2 because I'm willing to engage in dialogue about #NoEstimates in public? Is anti-management contagious? #LeanEstimates— David A. Koontz (@davidakoontz) April 13, 2017 There appears to be large amounts of animosity amongst the principle people that were having this dialogue - nope that word is not the best word, here... try debate... twitter shouting match...
@henebb @PeterKretzman @galleman @duarte_vasco well that certainly didn't happen, thanks to your vigilance; have you asked him if that was his intent?— David A. Koontz (@davidakoontz) April 13, 2017
@davidakoontz @henebb @galleman @duarte_vasco Point: Woody won't talk with critics.
Second point: you're a little too fixated on this one example of anti-mgmt. As I said, there are many.— Peter Kretzman (@PeterKretzman) April 13, 2017
@PeterKretzman @henebb @galleman @duarte_vasco So you didn't ask Woody about the issue?
Is it just you he will not talk to, because I've chatted with him a lot.— David A. Koontz (@davidakoontz) April 13, 2017
@henebb @PeterKretzman @galleman @duarte_vasco I like that analogy... estimate are addictive - but not that powery - what is your object to the analogy?— David A. Koontz (@davidakoontz) April 13, 2017
@henebb @PeterKretzman @galleman @duarte_vasco brushing teeth is not addictive; it's nothing like heroin addiction I'm told.— David A. Koontz (@davidakoontz) April 13, 2017
@davidakoontz @PeterKretzman @galleman @duarte_vasco ...Yeah, and seeing healthy estimating as "addiction process" reveals that you despise estimates.— Henrik Ebbeskog (@henebb) April 13, 2017
@henebb @PeterKretzman @galleman @duarte_vasco wow - how did you jump to that conclusion?
"despise estimates" not many of the team members I work with would support your conclusion— David A. Koontz (@davidakoontz) April 13, 2017
@henebb @PeterKretzman @galleman @duarte_vasco ah... do we need to review the concept of analogy - I liked the analogy, I find it useful; I think that's different than what your stating— David A. Koontz (@davidakoontz) April 13, 2017
@henebb @PeterKretzman @galleman @duarte_vasco that's not where I would apply the nature of addiction in the analogy. Yet I can see how you could get there.— David A. Koontz (@davidakoontz) April 14, 2017 How might the analogy of estimation is like addiction be a useful analogy?
@galleman @PeterKretzman @henebb @duarte_vasco That's not consistent with my conversation and experiences with @WoodyZuill (your good with logic - am I within the set of anyone?)— David A. Koontz (@davidakoontz) April 13, 2017
@PeterKretzman @henebb @galleman @duarte_vasco I'm just guessing but I bet there was a period when he was willing to converse with you all.
pondering ... my experience extrapolated ...— David A. Koontz (@davidakoontz) April 13, 2017

See Also:

Impact of Schedule Estimation on Software Project Behavior
by Tarek K. Abdel-Hamid, SRI International Stuart E. Madnick, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
A Preliminary Inquiry into the Software Estimation Process by J.A. Farquhar, 1970
Categories: Blogs

The Lasso of Truth

Sat, 05/06/2017 - 00:04
Truth is a wonderful concept - but can we really know it?

I'm very excited about the 2017 release of a Wonder Woman movie.  Can't wait - it looks great, I always love the first in a series.  I like the character development, the WHY of the foundational aspects of the character.  From the preview it looks like we will see Princess Diana of Themyscira grow up and the reasons she finds her self in America.  Fascinating...

I learned a bit about the truth of the back story of the back story of ... well the history of the creator of the Wonder Woman myth in of all places... a training course on DiSC by Dr. Abelson.  [Queue the spooky dream sequence music.]

The inventor of the Wonder Woman myth is William Moulton Marston. Wonder Woman made her debut in All Star Comics #8 (December 1941), scripted by Marston.  If you have one in the garage I'll buy it from you.  Apparently, Marston designed Wonder Woman as an allegory for the true leader; the kind of women who should run society.

"Wonder Woman is psychological propaganda for the new type of woman who should, I believe, rule the world."
Marston [6]
In the World War I years (1917),  [at that time they didn't use the ONE designation for some reason - guess they didn't plan on rev-ing the concept, how silly not to thing that humans would improve the concept of World War] Marston was interested in discovering physiological evidence of a person as they deceive - he's though of as one of the father's of the modern lie detector (Polygraph).  When he created his leader epitome, he gave her the power to discern truth via the Lasso of Truth.

Wonder Woman's physical appearance and her bullet bending bracelets were inspired by Olive Byrne, Marston's lover in an open relationship with he and his wife, Elisabeth.

Going back a bit deeper from the Wonder Woman idealized leader, Marston investigated normal people and their emotions. In the late 1920s he developed a theory of human behavior based upon two aspects, environment and reaction to the environment.  This theory produced the classic quadrant model and is known as the DISC Theory which was refined by in 1956 by Walter Clarke into the DISC assessment model.
"Marston viewed people behaving along two axes, with their attention being either passive or active; depending on the individual's perception of his or her environment as either favorable or antagonistic. By placing the axes at right angles, four quadrants form with each describing a behavioral pattern:
  • Dominance produces activity in an antagonistic environment
  • Inducement produces activity in a favorable environment
  • Submission produces passivity in a favorable environment
  • Compliance produces passivity in an antagonistic environment.

Marston posited that there is a masculine notion of freedom that is inherently anarchic and violent and an opposing feminine notion based on "Love Allure" that leads to an ideal state of submission to loving authority."This DISC theory and model were never trademarked or copyrighted - therefor there are quite a few versions and instances of this tool.  Including wonderfully misleading FaceBook questionnaires that should be view with skepticism.  DISC practiced well by a practitioner can be a very useful tool for self discovery.
David is a "High D" - classic Developer profile
See Also:
Psychometric Assessments - a peek inside the person
Multiple Views of the Truth are Perceptions
The Life of the Mind: Hannah Arendt on Thinking vs. Knowing and the Crucial Difference Between Truth and Meaning Brain Pickings
Categories: Blogs

Book Review:: Agile Noir by Lancer Kind

Tue, 05/02/2017 - 13:53

 Agile Noir by Lancer Kind    and I'm envisioning a 1956 black and white film Kartar is the metaphor of his project.

First, allow me to layout some ground rules and a touch of the backstory...

I'm not a professional book reviewer, nor paid in anyway to read.  But if I could get that gig... I'd be a happy camper.  I've never written a book, but I've hacked out some code, a few articles, some of which might be considered book reviews.  I've worked in the Agile industry for more than a decade (but who's counting), and so - I may be a little close to the topic to have proper literary impartial bias.  In fact let me just go ahead and be explicit - I've done this, been there, got the t-shirt; I shit you not - this shit is for real!

Agile Noir by Lancer Kind
Now the ground rules...  I think this review will be written ... what's the word... while I'm reading, at the same time, without much delay in the reading - writing situ.... iteratively... oh I give up...

So don't be surprised - dear reader - if I just drop off in the middle...
                       ... maybe check back every week until I finish
March 22,
I've studied the cover... quite a nice graphic - to bad the whole novel isn't a graphic novel; oh - maybe it would be too bloody,  I could see Agile Noir becoming a Tarantino film.  As I sat looking at my book to-do stack... I skipped a few levels down the stack and pulled out Lancer Kind's 2016 Agile Noir.  I have read some of his previous comics titled Scrum Noir (vol 1, 2, 3).  So maybe I know what to expect - should be a fun romp in the fast lane with lots of inside the industry puns, innuendo and metaphors.

Well the damn dedication just reeks of an Agile Coach - Servant Leader (puke, barf.... moving on).

The High Cost of Schedule Slip
Now you may not find the situation Kartar finds himself in funny...  allow me to add some overtones of irony....  I'm going to go out on a racist limb and suggest that Kartar is an Indian.  That he is working in the heart of the Indian nation (Los Wages, NV), perhaps on a job for an Italian crime boss.  And none of these circumstances have anything to do with one of the world of science's biggest failures - Columbus's discover of the New World - which the thought was India, and named it's inhabitants there by creating the confusion we will have to deal with evermore.  Now Columbus was of course searching for a way to reduce the schedule required for shipping spices.

Kartar appears to be very emerged in planning and the art/science/pesdo-truth of planning and predicting the future of projects.  And he may be a master with the Gantt chart (which is footnoted on page 18).

This is all ringing just too true ... and I'm envisioning it in the style of a 1956 black and white film...

Kartar is the metaphor of his project... it seems that it's not quite on schedule... he's late to a just announced meeting with some superior and is driving at break neck speed on loose sand in the Vegas out skirts creating over bumps and ditches in his car with the accelerator pinned to the floor - because some people in a van might be trying to kill him.  Happens ALL - THE - TIME.

April 4th
Finished chapter 1.  That Bastard.  He killed off our hero Kartar.  oh - OPPS - SPOILERS!
I truly don't know if I should throw the book in the garbage bin or keep reading... going to bed.

April 6th
OK - that was quite the trick, Chapter 2, Rowing over a better Waterfall is a twist... but now it's getting interesting and our hero is back, yet I fear not quite in control of his project.

April 10th
The chapter Death by Documentation is just that... a death march, I almost quit.  The chapter is worth skipping if you have ever been on one of these classic projects - then you already know enough to thumb to page 89 and restart.  However if your not in IT or project management work of any type (Record Scratch: then how in the heck did you find my blog - and why are you reading this book?) you might enjoy the chapter as it will explain how all of your companies IT project fall behind schedule and never deliver what you want.  Read it - little bells of enlightenment will chime in your head.

The introduction of the IT Mechanic is quite fun.  He's almost a stalker... yeah, he's definitely a PM stalker.  This character is going to be fun.  He's reminding me of someone I've met... and someone from my youthful days of reading Carlos Castaneda.  The character's name is "J" could it stand for Jaun (as in don Jaun Matus)?  He's got an interesting calling card with no numbers or email addresses.  I'd recommend he try Moo - best printing house in the business.  J has some psyc skills and quite a few trick up his sleeves (he is living in the land of Penn & Teller after all).

I really enjoyed this chapter, but then almost any thing would be great after that death slog of documentation hell.

April 12th 
Sprinting is the right word for the next chapter... it's a dash by Usain Bolt.  In Sprinting with a Bollywood Autobot Kartar learns to write user stories and mix drinks of analysis, design, requirement, and development.  He attempts to negotiate on delivery with the owner and in the end crosses the third rail of the PMI tracks in a Lovers quarrel.  Oh - damn, that's not at all what happens.  But it's a lot of fun and went by really fast.  Don't know if we can sustain this pace for the rest of the book.

April 19th
Scrumming in a Waterfall - nice visual, great chapter.  I'm pulling for Kartar, he's doing all the right behaviors, making mistakes and learning each step of the way.  One day he's going to land this project in the success column of management's spreadsheet.  It appears that's how interested the big boss is in the project (affectionally called "Winner").  It's right when Kartar is about got the dirty little secret of Scrum figured out in this iteration that the Lovers, Sis & Lex show up and we cycle under the pressure of the waterfall, tumbling and gasping for air.  

How do you explain water to a fish?  I'm thinking that Kartar is learning all kinds of things in this iteration.  He's gotten lesson at the firing range, upgrade his tiny pistol to an arsenal that Fiona Glenanne (Burn Notice) would be proud of - maybe she'd invite Kartar to show her his car trunk.

But by the end of this chapter - we are back in the rabbit hole with Alice and late, we're late, for an important date.

April 23rd
I've come to understand something about "new new product development" in the software world... it requires great Product Vision and this chapter illustrates a wonderful secret of the process.  This is a wonderful view of the typical company move to the Agile mindset.  Place yourself in Kartar's view and you may believe you have the system figured out.  But is there something missing?  All the teams are scrumming and getting along, produce working software.  It's a happy time on the project.  I'm left wondering what could possibly happen next (hint its not near enough to the end of the book).

April 30th
The next two chapters are great... I couldn't put down the book, had to see Kartar's fate - could he ship the Winner, or would the PMI high priestess Lex & Sis reclaim their underling that has gone astray?  Yes (SPOILERS), of course he get's his team doing Scrum, and the the other's join in the game to ship working software... but what stresses might this cause within this Vegas eco-system?

Well, you may make a guess - but it might surprise you how this project to produce the mobile gambling game-boy turns out.  And if there is a hero... I'm sure it's not Kartar, but he doesn't disappoint.

Addendum ~=  Moral of the Story
The last two chapters, are really addendum, or afterward, for those of you who wish to go beyond the story and understand the underlying moral.

So at this departure point, allow me to confess.  I enjoined this task of reading Agile Noir to answer one personal question:  Would reading a fictional story of a character going through the mental transformation of becoming Agile, be as powerful as a two day workshop that results in a certification, and the beginning of a lifetime's journey to agility, and JOY in the workplace?

This is a difficult question to answer from my current perspective - I would love your (dear reader) answer - it may be much more realistic than my answer.  I believe (I want to believe - me and Muller) that this could be as powerful to a ready open minded person, as an introductory 2 day class.  So my answer to the primary question: YES!

Now one might want to know WHY?
I have an idea why this technique may be just as powerful - maybe better scalability, and in general better ROI.  Come back after this idea bakes a few days...

Table of Contents:
  1. The High Cost of Schedule Slip
  2. Rowing over a better Waterfall
  3. Death by Documentation
  4. The IT Mechanic
  5. Sprinting with a Bollywood Autobot
  6. Scrumming in a Waterfall
  7. Product Vision
  8. Sustainable Pace
  9. Liberation and Libations
  1. Agile Development is about having FUN!
  2. Why Let Your Framework Limit You?

See Also:
Scrum Noir - several volumes of graphic novel about scrum masters and the projects they encounter - also by Lancer Kind
I will have a Double Expresso - Amazon review of Scrum Noir.
Categories: Blogs

Synergic Reading Lessons

Fri, 04/28/2017 - 06:17

Wondering what other books I should read concurrently with the philosophy of this book, Other Minds, on the mind of our alien ancestors. In chapter one Peter is already mashing up Ismael and Darwin, so I feel it appropriate to do a bit of mix-in myself. I'm thinking Seven Brief Lessons on Physics will add spice. To bad I recycled How to Create a Mind at Half Price Books.

I've also got to read Coaching Agile Teams by Lyssa Adkins for work's book club. And I may mix-in a bit of LEGO Serious Play, because I cannot get serious about coaching - seems like a play activity to me.

Maybe I will devise a quadrant model of these books. A Venn diagram of their overlapping topics.

Squid Communicate With a Secret, Skin-Powered Alphabet

Categories: Blogs

Dialogue on Prerequisites for Collaboration

Fri, 04/21/2017 - 19:10
IDEO-University 'From Ideas to Action' Lesson 1.

Join the dialogue on G+ Agile+ group.

Dialogue on Collaboration on Facebook (PDF)

Collaboration starts with who we are and our story - not the technology or the data
"The Future of Work Is Social Collaboration from Inside Out, where people connect around the why of work from who they really are as individuals in community.
They collaborate in generative conversations and co-create what’s next, i.e. their unique Contribution of value to society – what we might call Social Good.
They collaborate by taking the time to appreciate and align each other’s unique, hard wired, natural strengths, creating new levels of authentic and trusting relationships to take the Social Journey."Jeremy Scrivens Director at The Emotional Economy at Work

What does dialogue mean... what does it contribute to collaboration? Here's what the inventor of the internet Al Gore had to say about this:

Audie Cornish speaks with former Vice President Al Gore about the new edition of his book, The Assault On Reason.

Well, others have noted a free press is the immune system 
of representative democracy. And as I wrote 10 years ago, American democracy is in grave danger from the changes in the environment in which ideas either live and spread or wither and die. I think that the trends that I wrote about 10 years ago have continued and worsened, and the hoped-for remedies that can come from online discourse have been slow to mature. I remain optimistic that ultimately free speech and a free press where individuals have access to the dialogue will have a self-correcting quality. -- Al Gore
Excerpt from NPR interview with Al Gore by Audie Cornish March 14, 2017. Heard on All Things Considered.

See Also:

Mob Programming by Woody Zuill

If Your Team Agrees on Everything, Working Together Is Pointless by Liane Davey - HBR

[View the story "Dialogue on Prerequisites for Collaboration" on Storify]
Categories: Blogs

Waggle Dance -or- Standup Meeting

Thu, 04/20/2017 - 14:34
Bees do a dance that bee keeper refer to as the Waggle dance...

It is with great pleasure that you can watch and using the power of science have this dance translated into English.

Bee Dance (Waggle Dance) by Bienentanz GmbH
What does this have to do with Scrum?  The power of a metaphor was well known to the creators of Extreme Programming (XP) - so much so, that it is one of only 12 "rules" that those really smart people decided to enshrine into their process.  It is also the most likely rule to not be mentioned in any survey of software development practices.  Unless you happen to be chatting with Eric Evens, and he may agree that he's captured the underlying principle in Domain-Driven Design, the Ubiquitous Language pattern.

Have you ever observed a great scrum team using a classic tool of many innovative company environments - the physical visual management board (Scrum Task Board). The generic behavior for a small group of people (say around 7 plus/minus 2) is for the group to discover that a form of dance where the speaker moves to the board and manipulates objects on the board as they speak gives everyone else the context of what story they are working upon and what task they are telling us they have completed. Then they exit stage left - so to speak. And the next dancer approaches from stage right, to repeat the dance segment. Generally speaking one circuit of this group is a complete dance for the day. The team is then in sync with all there team mates, and may have negotiated last minute changes to their daily plan, as the dance proceeded. In my observation of this dance great teams complete this ritual in about 15 minutes. They appear to need to perform this dance early in the morning to have productive days. And groups that practice this dance ritual well, out perform groups that are much larger and groups that don't dance.

So going all honey bee meta for a moment...  Let's use our meta-cognition ability to think about the patterns.  We love to pattern recognize - our brain is well designed for that (one of the primary reasons a physical visualization of work is so much more productive as a accelerator of happiness than virtualization of the same work items).

When do we use great metaphors - in design great NEW experiences for people that are reluctant to change.  And to communicate the desired behaviors, the exciting new benefits to adopting something new.  I'm thinking of the 1984 introduction of the Graphical User Interface by the Apple pirate team that produced the GUI, the Mouse, the Pointer, the DropDown Menu, etc.

Can you see a pattern in this... a pattern that relates to people changing systems, behaviors, disrupting the status quo?  It is resonating in my neurons, I'm having a heck of a time translating these neuron firing waves of intuitions, into the motor cortex to make my stupid fingers pound out the purposefully retarding movements on a QWERTY keyboard to communicate with you over Space-Time.  If only we could dance!

See Also:

The Waggle Dance of the Honeybee by Georgia Tech College of Computing
How can honeybees communicate the locations of new food sources? Austrian biologist, Karl Von Frisch, devised an experiment to find out! By pairing the direction of the sun with the flow of gravity, honeybees are able to explain the distant locations of food by dancing. "The Waggle Dance of the Honeybee" details the design of Von Frisch's famous experiment and explains the precise grammar of the honeybees dance language with high quality visualizations.
This video is a design documentary, developed by scientists at Georgia Tech's College of Computing in order to better understand and share with others, the complex behaviors that can arise in social insects. Their goal at the Multi-Agent Robotics and Systems (MARS) Laboratory is to harness new computer vision techniques to accelerate biologists' research in animal behavior. This behavioral research is then used, in turn, to design better systems of autonomous robots.

I was just reminded of @davidakoontz's wonderful metaphor for the daily #Scrum: waggle dance :)

— Tobias Mayer (@tobiasmayer) April 7, 2017

Categories: Blogs

Leadership re-envisioned in the 21st Century

Mon, 04/17/2017 - 22:38
Is there a new form of leadership being envisioned in the 21st Century?  Is there someone challenging the traditional form of organizational structure?

Leading Wisely - a pod cast with Ricardo Semler.
Leading Wisely
"Join organizational changemaker Ricardo Semler in conversation with leaders challenging assumptions and changing how we live and work."
S1E01: Killing the Dinosaur Business Model (Part 1) with Basecamp’s Jason Fried & DHH

S1E02: Killing the Dinosaur Business Model (Part 2) with Basecamp’s Jason Fried & DHH
S1E03: Reinventing Organizations with Frederic Laloux

S1E04: Self-organization with Zappos' Tony Hsieh
S1E05: Busting Innovation Myths with David Burkus

S1E06: Merit and Self-Management with Jurgen Appelo

S1E07: Letting Values Inform Organizational Structure with Jos de Blok

S1E08: Corporate Liberation with Isaac Getz

S1E09: The Police & Self-Management with Erwin van Waeleghem

S1E10: Season Finale: The Common Denominator with Rich Sheridan of Joy Inc.

A ran across this series of 10 talks because I'm a fan of Joy, Inc. author and leader of Menlo innovations, Richard Sheridan.  I saw a tweet about his talk and found a bucket of goodness.
The Common Denominator with Rich Sheridan of Joy Inc.

Richard Sheridan on podcast Leading WiselySee Also:A Review of Leadership ModelsExamples of 21st C. CompaniesSafety - the perquisite for Leadership
A Leadership Paradox

Book List:
Maverick!: The Success Story Behind the World's Most Unusual Workplace by Ricardo SemlerJoy, Inc : How We Built a Workplace People Love by Richard SheridanReWork: Change the Way You Work Forever by David Heinemeier Hansson and Jason Fried
Reinventing Organizations: A Guide to Creating Organizations Inspired by the Next Stage in Human Consciousness by Frederic Laloux
Categories: Blogs

Velocity Calculus - The mathematical study of the changing software development effort by a team

Fri, 04/14/2017 - 21:39

In the practice of Scrum many people appear to have their favorite method of calculating the team's velocity. For many, this exercise appears very academic. Yet when you get three people and ask them you will invariability get more answers than you have belly-buttons.

Velocity—the rate of change in the position of an object; a vector quantity, with both magnitude and direction. “Calculus is the mathematical study of change.” — Donald Latorre 
This pamphlet describes the method I use to teach beginning teams this one very important Scrum concept via a photo journal simulation.

Some of the basic reasons many teams are "doing it wrong"... (from my comment on Doc Norton's FB question: Hey social media friends, I am curious to hear about dysfunctions on agile teams related to use of velocity. What have you seen?

  • mgmt not understanding purpose of Velocity empirical measure;
  • teams using some bogus statistical manipulation called an average without the understanding of the constrains that an average is valid within;
  • SM allowing teams to carry over stories and get credit for multiple sprints within one measurement (lack of understanding of empirical);
  • pressure to give "credit" for effort but zero results - culture dynamic viscous feedback loop;
  • lack of understanding of the virtuous cycle that can be built with empirical measurement and understanding of trends;
  • no action to embrace the virtuous benefits of a measure-respond-adapt model (specifically story slicing to appropriate size)
... there's 6 - but saving the best for last:
  • breaking the basic tenants of the scrum estimation model - allow me to expand for those who have already condemned me for violating written (or suggesting unwritten) dogma...
    • a PBL item has a "size" before being Ready (a gate action) for planning;
    • the team adjusts the PBL item size any/ever time they touch the item and learn more about it (like at planning/grooming);
    • each item is sized based on effort/etc. from NOW (or start of sprint - a point in time) to DONE (never on past sunk cost effort);
    • empirical evidence and updated estimates are a good way to plan;
  • therefore carryover stories are resized before being brought into the next sprint - also reprioritized - and crying over spilt milk or lost effort credit is not allowed in baseball (or sprint planning)

Day 1 - Sprint Planning
A simulated sprint plan with four stories is developed. The team forecast they will do 26 points in this sprint.

Day 2
The team really gets to work.

Day 3
Little progress is visible, concern starts to show.

Day 4Do you feel the sprint progress starting to slide out of control?

Day 5About one half of the schedule is spent, but only one story is done.

Day 6The team has started work on all four stories, will this amount of ‘WIP’ come back to hurt them?

Day 7
Although two stories are now done, the time box is quickly expiring.

Day 8
The team is mired in the largest story.

Day 9The output of the sprint is quite fuzzy. What will be done for the demo, what do we do with the partially completed work?

Day 10
The Sprint Demo day. Three stories done (A, B, & D) get demoed to the PO and accepted.

Close the SprintCalculate the Velocity - a simple arithmetic sum.

Story C is resized given its known state and the effort to get it from here to done. 

What is done with the unfinished story? It goes back into the backlog and is ordered and resized.

Backlog grooming (refinement) is done to prepare for the next sprint planning session.

Trophies of accomplishments help motivation and release planning. Yesterday’s weather (pattern) predicts the next sprints velocity.

Sprint 2 Begins with Sprint PlanningDay 1Three stories are selected by the team.  Including the resized (now 8 points) story C.

Day 2
Work begins on yet another sprint.

Day 3
Work progresses on story tasks.

The cycles of days repeats and the next sprint completes.

Close Sprint 2Calculate the Velocity - a simple arithmetic sum.

In an alternative world we may do more complex calculus. But will it lead us to better predictability?

In this alternative world one wishes to receive partial credit for work attempted.  Yet the story was resized based upon the known state and getting it to done.

Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication. — Leonardo di Vinci 
Now let’s move from the empirical world of measurement and into the realm of lies.

Simply graphing the empirical results and using the human eye & mind to predict is more accurate than many peoples math.

Velocity is an optimistic measure. An early objective is to have a predictable team.

Velocity may be a good predictor of release duration. Yet it is always an optimistic predictor.

Variance Graphed: Pessimistic projection (red line) & optimistic projection (green line) of release duration.

While in the realm of fabrication of information — let’s better describe the summary average with it’s variance.

Categories: Blogs

Multiple Views of Truth are Perceptions

Wed, 04/12/2017 - 23:33
These are a few of the images that resonate with me. For me they are very close to a door of perception. Now I've never done a mescaline trip, so perhaps I've no clue to what a door frame of perception even looks like... but these images are pretty good with a few beers and some colleagues to discuss there deep meaning and what truth is. Would we even know the truth if it walked up and slapped our face?

Translated: "This is not a pipe"

Cover image of book: Godel Escher Bach

This is Truth; while this and that are true
In any article I write that mentions a door of perception - I would be remise if I didn't mention one of my all time favorite poets and musical group - Jim Morrison and the Doors.  Now do you know that the band is named for?

Aldous Huxley's The Doors of Perception
"Huxley concludes that mescaline is not enlightenment or the Beatific vision, but a "gratuitous grace" (a term taken from Thomas Aquinas' Summa Theologica).[50] It is not necessary but helpful, especially so for the intellectual, who can become the victim of words and symbols. Although systematic reasoning is important, direct perception has intrinsic value too. Finally, Huxley maintains that the person who has this experience will be transformed for the better."
See Also:

Godel Escher Bach An Eternal Golden Braid by Douglas Hofstadter
This Is Not a Pipe by Michel Foucault
Art of Rene Magritte
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TrumpCare in its Infancy January 2017

Sun, 04/09/2017 - 23:47
I'm extremely concerned today for my country and this planet.  It appears that history is repeating.
    January 27th -- International Holocaust Remembrance Day.

President Trump bars refugees and citizens of Muslim nations entry into the U.S.A.

The New York Times
By Bundesarchiv, Bild 183-N0827-318 / CC-BY-SA 3.0, CC BY-SA 3.0 de
Four score and four years ago a dictator brought forth on the European continent an evolving plan to rule the world and subjugate the masses.

Now we are engaged in a great resistance, testing whether our nation, or any nations conceived from the learning of our mothers and fathers and so dedicated to liberty, can long endure.  We are met on a great social square of technologic creation.  We have come to dedicate a portion of our wealth, wisdom, and life to those in history that have offered their lives and wisdom so that we may learn and prosper.  It is altogether fitting and proper that we should do this.

But, in a larger sense, we can not dedicate -- we can not consecrate -- we can not hallow -- this square.  The brave women and men, living and dead, who struggle here, have consecrated it, far above our poor power to add or detract.  The world will little note, nor long remember what we say here, but it can never forget what they did here in the commons.  It is for us the living, rather, to be dedicated here to the unfinished work which they who fought here have thus far so nobly advanced.  It is rather for us to be here dedicated to the great task remaining before us -- that from these honored dead we take increased devotion to that cause for which they gave the last full measure of devotion -- that this nation, ruled by law, shall have a new birth of freedom -- and that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from this planet.

-- David A. Koontz, human patriot

President Abraham Lincoln's address, on Thursday, November 19, 1863, to dedicate Soldiers' National Cemetery in Gettysburg, Pennsylvania, four and a half months after the Union armies defeated those of the Confederacy at the Battle of GettysburgFour score and seven years ago our fathers brought forth on this continent, a new nation, conceived in Liberty, and dedicated to the proposition that all men are created equal. Now we are engaged in a great civil war, testing whether that nation, or any nation so conceived and so dedicated, can long endure. We are met on a great battle-field of that war. We have come to dedicate a portion of that field, as a final resting place for those who here gave their lives that that nation might live. It is altogether fitting and proper that we should do this. But, in a larger sense, we can not dedicate—we can not consecrate—we can not hallow—this ground. The brave men, living and dead, who struggled here, have consecrated it, far above our poor power to add or detract. The world will little note, nor long remember what we say here, but it can never forget what they did here. It is for us the living, rather, to be dedicated here to the unfinished work which they who fought here have thus far so nobly advanced. It is rather for us to be here dedicated to the great task remaining before us—that from these honored dead we take increased devotion to that cause for which they gave the last full measure of devotion—that we here highly resolve that these dead shall not have died in vain—that this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom—and that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth.

"Abraham Lincoln's carefully crafted address, secondary to other presentations that day, was one of the greatest and most influential statements of national purpose. In just over two minutes, Lincoln reiterated the principles of human equality espoused by the Declaration of Independence[6] and proclaimed the Civil War as a struggle for the preservation of the Union sundered by the secession crisis,[7] with "a new birth of freedom"[8] that would bring true equality to all of its citizens.[9] Lincoln also redefined the Civil War as a struggle not just for the Union, but also for the principle of human equality.[6]".

"Lincoln's address followed the oration by Edward Everett, who subsequently included a copy of the Gettysburg Address in his 1864 book about the event (Address of the Hon. Edward Everett At the Consecration of the National Cemetery At Gettysburg, 19th November 1863, with the Dedicatory Speech of President Lincoln, and the Other Exercises of the Occasion; Accompanied by An Account of the Origin of the Undertaking and of the Arrangement of the Cemetery Grounds, and by a Map of the Battle-field and a Plan of the Cemetery)."
 -- Wikipedia, Gettysburg Address
The books title is indictavite of the author's ability to thoroughly cover a topic. Everett's 2-hour oration had 13,607 words.

See Also:
     The Address by Ken Burns - PBS. Did you hear the story about the person that would give $20 bucks to grandkids that learned the Gettysburg Address? Encouraged me to learn it and it's history. History has an interesting emergent property... it appears to repeat, this is a emergent property from a complex system. It is the complex system practicing and learning... Humans as part of this universe's system, are so far (as we know) it's fastest learning sub-system. Our apparent loop duration is currently around Four Score years.Why President Obama Didn't Say 'Under God' While Reading the Gettysburg Address
Lincoln's 272 Words, A Model Of Brevity For Modern Times by Scott Simon

    Germany's Enabling Act of 1933. "The Enabling Act gave Hitler plenary powers. It followed on the heels of the Reichstag Fire Decree, which abolished most civil liberties and transferred state powers to the Reich government. The combined effect of the two laws was to transform Hitler's government into a de facto legal dictatorship."
     Women's March 2017 "A series of worldwide protests on January 21, 2017, in support of women's rights and related causes. The rallies were aimed at Donald Trump, immediately following his inauguration as President of the United States, largely due to his statements and positions which had been deemed as anti-women or otherwise reprehensible."
     Reichstag Fire Decree - Germany 1933  According to Rudolf Diels, Hitler was heard shouting through the fire "these sub-humans do not understand how the people stand at our side. In their mouse-holes, out of which they now want to come, of course they hear nothing of the cheering of the masses."[1].   Seizing on the burning of the Reichstag building as the supposed opening salvo in a communist uprising, the Nazis were able to throw millions of Germans into a convulsion of fear at the threat of Communist terror. The official account stated:  The burning of the Reichstag was intended to be the signal for a bloody uprising and civil war. Large-scale pillaging in Berlin was planned for as early as four o’clock in the morning on Tuesday. It has been determined that starting today throughout Germany acts of terrorism were to begin against prominent individuals, against private property, against the lives and safety of the peaceful population, and general civil war was to be unleashed…[2]
     TrumpCare: In the Beginning by Bill Frist - Nov. 2016, Forbes.  "Yesterday Americans woke up to news of a new president-elect: Donald J. Trump. The immediate question for those whose lives focus around lifting the health of individual Americans is, “What does this mean for health care in America?”
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